Predictors of Colectomy at 1 Year in Severe Ulcerative Colitis
Monika Fischer, MD, reviewing Le Baut G, et al. Clin Gastroenterol Hepatol 2020 Jan 9.
A French IBD consortium studied 270 hospitalized patients with severe ulcerative colitis (UC) for a median follow-up of 30 months. They developed an externally validated scoring system for prediction of colectomy within 1 year of hospitalization. They found that 4 factors were independently associated with this outcome: C. difficile infection, C-reactive protein serum level >30 mg/L, serum albumin concentration <3 g/dL, and previous exposure to an anti-tumor necrosis factor (TNF) or thiopurine analog. For the risk score, each factor was given 1 point. Patients who had 4 points had a 100% chance of losing their colon within 1 year, whereas patients with 0 points had a 0% chance of undergoing a colectomy. Patients with 1 or 2 points had a 10% chance, and patients with 3 points had a 50% chance of colectomy. Negative predictive value of the model ranged from 87% to 92%.
Monika Fischer, MD, FASGE
CITATION(S )
Le Baut G, Kirchgesner J, Amiot A, et al. A scoring system to determine patients’ risk of colectomy within 1 y after hospital admission for acute severe ulcerative colitis. Clin Gastroenterol Hepatol 2020 Jan 9. (Epub ahead of print) (https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cgh.2019.12.036)